[1]陈子恒,杨光亮,谈洪波,等.台湾花莲MW7.4地震及其后续地震序列的同震与震后综合库伦应力变化模拟及地震危险性分析[J].华南地震,2026,46(05):1-11.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2026.05.01]
　CHEN Ziheng,YANG Guangliang,TAN Hongbo,et al.Simulation of Coseismic and Postseismic Integrated Coulomb Stress Changes and Seismic Hazard Analysis for the 2024 MW 7.4 Hualien Earthquake and Its Subsequent Seismic Sequence, Taiwan[J].,2026,46(05):1-11.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2026.05.01]
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台湾花莲MW7.4地震及其后续地震序列的同震与震后综合库伦应力变化模拟及地震危险性分析()

华南地震[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
46
期数:
2026年05期
页码:
1-11
栏目:
地震科学研究
出版日期:
2026-09-07

文章信息/Info

Title:
Simulation of Coseismic and Postseismic Integrated Coulomb Stress Changes and Seismic Hazard Analysis for the 2024 MW 7.4 Hualien Earthquake and Its Subsequent Seismic Sequence, Taiwan
文章编号:
1001-8662（2026）05-0001-11
作者:
陈子恒1; 2; 3; 杨光亮1; 2; 3; 谈洪波1; 2; 3; 孟恒舟1; 2; 3; 刘胜1; 2; 3; 周天祥1; 2; 3
1.中国地震局地震研究所，武汉 430071;2.湖北省地震局，武汉 430071;3.中国地震局地震大地测量重点实验室，武汉 430071
Author(s):
CHEN Ziheng1; 2; 3; YANG Guangliang1; 2; 3; TAN Hongbo1; 2; 3; MENG Hengzhou1; 2; 3; LIU Sheng1; 2; 3; ZHOU Tianxiang1; 2; 3
1.Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, Wuhan 430071, China;2.Hubei Earthquake Agency, Wuhan 430071, China;3.Key Laboratory of Earthquake Geodesy, China Earthquake Administration, Wuhan 430071, China
关键词:
花莲地震; 库伦应力变化; 纵谷断裂带
Keywords:
Hualien earthquake;  Coulomb stress change;  Longitudinal Valley Fault zone
分类号:
P315.72+7
DOI:
10.13512/j.hndz.2026.05.01
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
2024年4月3日台湾花莲县海域发生MW7.4地震，这是继集集地震后，25年内台湾地区震级最高的地震。在随后的500天内，台湾地区发生多次中强震，其中台南MW6.2地震为当地50年来规模最大的一次地震。研究基于断层模型及台湾地区地壳模型，模拟了花莲MW7.4、台南MW6.2及台东MW5.8地震对台湾地区以及纵谷断裂带在不同深度的同震及震后库伦应力变化。结果显示，花莲地震在台南地区产生的应力加载量为0.011bar，对台东地区产生的应力卸载量为0.1bar。台南地震后，两次地震在台东地区的累计库伦应力卸载量为0.16bar。结合前人的研究，研究认为，花莲地震对台南地震可能具有触发作用，而对台东地震具有延缓作用。台南地震不仅有效释放了台南地区积累的应力，并进一步抑制了台东地震的发生。模拟结果显示，花莲震中的东北至西南方向、台南震中的西南方向以及纵谷断裂带北段，是震后应力呈现显著加载的区域。值得注意的是，纵谷断裂带北段的高应力区与前人划定的地震空区在空间上高度重合，并且此处的应力积累随着时间推移变得尤为显著。结合纵谷断裂带闭锁程度与历史强震活动等，研究认为该地区处于较高应力积累状态，未来强震风险显著增加。
Abstract:
On April 3, 2024, an MW7.4 earthquake struck offshore Hualien County, Taiwan, representing the larg‐est event in the region over the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. Over the following 500 days, Taiwan experienced several moderate-to-strong earthquakes, including the MW6.2 Tainan earthquake—the largest in that area in the past 50 years. Using fault models and a regional crustal structure model of Taiwan, this study simulates co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress changes(ΔCFS) induced by the Hualien MW7.4, Tainan MW6.2, and Taitung MW5.8 earth‐quakes across Taiwan and along the Longitudinal Valley Fault (LVF) at various depths. Results indicate that the Hualien earthquake produced a Coulomb stress loading of 0.011 bar in the Tainan region and a stress unloading of 0.1 bar in the Taitung region. Following the Tainan earthquake, the cumulative Coulomb stress decrease in Taitung reached 0.16 bar. Combined with the findings of Tang et al., these results suggest that the Hualien earthquake may have triggered the Tainan earthquake and delayed the occurrence of subsequent Taitung earthquake. The Tainan earthquake not only effectively released accumulated stress in the Tainan region but also further suppressed the like‐lihood of rupture in Taitung. Simulation results indicate that the northeast-to-southwest area around the Hualien epi‐center, the southwest sector surrounding the Tainan epicenter, and the northern segment of the Longitudinal Valley Fault Zone are prominent zones of post-seismic stress accumulation. In particular, the high-stress concentration along the northern Longitudinal Valley Fault exhibits strong spatial correspondence with previously identified seis‐mic gaps, and the stress buildup in this region intensifies markedly with time. Combined with the fault locking de‐gree of the Longitudinal Valley Fault and historical strong earthquake activities, this study concludes that this re‐gion is in a state of high tectonic stress accumulation, with a significantly increased risk of future strong earthquakes.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2025-11-19
基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目（42174104）；科技部科技基础资源调查专项（2023FY10150502）；湖北省自然科学基金计划项目（2022CFB350）联合资助。
作者简介：陈子恒（2002-），男，在读硕士研究生，研究方向为震后库伦应力模拟与地震危险性分析。E-mail: chen.cug@foxmail.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2026-09-20