[1]张 伟,梁 柱,郑志文.广东省不同尺度下地质灾害易发性评价指标与方法[J].华南地震,2026,46(04):133-144.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2026.04.16]
　ZHANG Wei,LIANG Zhu,ZHENG Zhiwen.Research on Evaluation Indexes and Methods of Geological Hazards Susceptibility at Different Scales in Guangdong Province[J].,2026,46(04):133-144.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2026.04.16]
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广东省不同尺度下地质灾害易发性评价指标与方法()

华南地震[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
46
期数:
2026年04期
页码:
133-144
栏目:
地震与地质灾害
出版日期:
2026-07-09

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on Evaluation Indexes and Methods of Geological Hazards Susceptibility at Different Scales in Guangdong Province
文章编号:
1001-8662（2026）04-0133-12
作者:
张 伟1; 2; 梁 柱3; 郑志文1; 2
1.广东省地质环境监测总站，广州 510308;2.自然资源部气候变化驱动下滑坡风险野外科学观测研究站，广州 510308;3.广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院有限公司，广州 510030
Author(s):
ZHANG Wei1; 2; LIANG Zhu3; ZHENG Zhiwen1; 2
1.Guangdong Geological Environment Monitoring Station, Guangzhou 510510, China;2.South China Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Climate-Driven Landslide Risk, Ministry of Natural Resources, Guangzhou 510510, China;3.Guangzhou Urban Planning&Design Survey Research Institute Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510030, China
关键词:
滑坡; 易发性评价; 逻辑回归; 随机森林; 层次分析; 评价因子
Keywords:
Landslide;  Susceptibility assessment;  Logistic regression;  Random forest;  Analytic Hierarchy Process; Evaluation factor
分类号:
P694
DOI:
10.13512/j.hndz.2026.04.16
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
广东省崩塌、滑坡地质灾害多发频发，严重威胁人民群众生命安全，开展地质灾害易发性评价对地质灾害防治工作至关重要，但不同评价尺度下各评价方法的适用性和评价因子的选取存在差异。以广东省作为研究区，选取高程、坡度、植被等10个指标作为初始影响因子，采用逻辑回归和随机森林算法进行对比分析，研究各易发性因子重要性排名。最终，确定了坡度、平面曲率、地形起伏度、岩土体类型、与断层距离、植被覆盖及土地利用类型为7个主控因子及其权重系数。在进行单一斜坡或小区域评价方面，采用层次分析法，研究形成了广东崩塌、滑坡地质灾害易发性评价指标体系及量化分值表。研究成果可支撑广东开展不同尺度下地质灾害易发性评价指标及方法选取。
Abstract:
Collapses and landslides occur with high frequency across Guangdong Province, posing severe threats to public safety. Conducting geological hazard susceptibility assessments is therefore of critical importance for hazard prevention and mitigation. This paper takes Guangdong Province as the research area, selects 10 indicators such as elevation, slope and vegetation as the initial influencing factors, and conducts comparative analysis using logistic regression and random forest algorithms to study the ranking of the importance of each factor. The analysis identified seven predominant controlling factors along with their corresponding weights: slope, plan curvature, terrain relief, lithology, distance to faults, vegetation coverage, and land use type. For susceptibility assessment on individual slopes or small-scale areas, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was adopted to develop an evaluation index system togerher with quantified score tables for collapse and landslide hazards in Guangdong. These findings provide technical support for the implementation of geological hazard susceptibility assessments throughout Guangdong Province.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2025-08-10
基金项目：广东省自然资源厅科技项目（GDZRZYKJ2025002）；广东省自然资源厅“2024年广东省地质灾害野外科学观测站和模拟试验场建设项目”（DHZZ2024032）联合资助。
作者简介：张伟（1983-），男，高级工程师，主要从事环境地质与地质灾害防治方面的研究。E-mail: janezhangwei@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2026-07-20