[1]陈大庆,邵 叶,许斌斌,等.中国大陆最大余震的统计特征分析[J].华南地震,2025,(03):6-12.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2025.03.02]
　CHEN Daqing,SHAO Ye,XU Binin,et al.Statistical Analysis of the Largest Aftershocks in Chinese Mainland[J].,2025,(03):6-12.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2025.03.02]
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中国大陆最大余震的统计特征分析()
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华南地震[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2025年03期
页码:
6-12
栏目:
地震科学研究
出版日期:
2025-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Statistical Analysis of the Largest Aftershocks in Chinese Mainland
文章编号:
1001-8662（2025）03-0006-07
作者:
陈大庆; 邵 叶; 许斌斌; 杨 雪; 王小娜; 仲 秋
广东省地震局，广州 510075
Author(s):
CHEN Daqing; SHAO Ye; XU Binin; YANG Xue; WANG Xiaona; ZHONG Qiu
Guangdong Earthquake Agency ， Guangzhou 510075， China
关键词:
中国大陆; 最大余震; 序列类型; 破裂类型; 间隔时间
Keywords:
Chinese mainland; Largest aftershock; Sequence type; Rupture type; Interval time
分类号:
P315
DOI:
10.13512/j.hndz.2025.03.02
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
对1976年以来中国大陆134次6级以上地震的破裂类型、序列类型、主震与最大余震的震级差、时间间隔以及序列类型和主震前震中区域中小地震活动的关系等进行了统计分析，发现90%的最大余震发生在主震后90天以内。按破裂类型划分，各类型中主余型的占比都超过了60%，并且相对在走滑型和正断型中占比较更高，而孤立型在走滑型中占比较低，正断型中甚至未出现孤立型地震，并且孤立型地震多发生在地震相对不活跃的区域，随着主震震级的升高，孤立型序列的数量占比显著减小。统计主震后24h内最大余震和后续最大余震的关系发现，主震后24h内发生的最大余震越大，则后续最大余震越小。如果24h内最大余震和主震震级差1级以内或者2.5级以上，前者后续发生更大余震可能性比例较小为18.2%，后者则可能性很大为89.5%。这些统计规律可以在震前、震后不同时间段对序列的最大余震做出估计。
Abstract:
Based on the data of 134 earthquakes with M≥6.0 in Chinese mainland since 1976，the paper presents a statistical analysis of the rupture types，sequence types，magnitude difference between the main shock and the largest aftershock，time interval，as well as the relationship between sequence types and small and medium-sized seismicity in the pre-mainshock epicentral region. It is found that 90% of the largest aftershocks occurred within 90 days after the main shock. According to the classification of rupture types，the proportion of main and after types in each type is more than 60%， and the proportion is higher in strike-slip type and normal fault type， while the proportion of isolated type is lower in strike-slip type， there is no isolated earthquake in the normal fault type. Isolated earthquakes usually occur in regions where earthquakes are relatively inactive， and with the increase of the magnitude of the main earthquake， the proportion of isolated sequences decreases significantly. Based on the relationship between the largest aftershock within 24 hours after the main shock and the largest aftershock， it is found that the larger the largest aftershock within 24 hours， the smaller the subsequent largest aftershock. If the magnitude difference between the largest aftershock within 24 hours and the main shock is less than one magnitude or more than 2.5 magnitude， the probability of a subsequent larger aftershock is 18.2% for the former and 89.5% for the latter. These statistical rules can be used to estimate the largest aftershocks in different time periods before and after an earthquake

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2024-02-13基金项目：广东省基础与应用基础研究基金（2023A1515110367）
作者简介：陈大庆（1977-），男，高级工程师，主要从事地震预测研究。E-mail：gd_daqing@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-09-30