[1]李金湘.基于E-I-D模型的梅州市地质灾害降雨阈值分析[J].华南地震,2025,(01):99-108.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2025.1.12]
　LI Jinxiang.Analysis of Rainfall Thresholds for Geologic Hazards in Mei?zhou City Based on E-I-D Model[J].,2025,(01):99-108.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2025.1.12]
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基于E-I-D模型的梅州市地质灾害降雨阈值分析()
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华南地震[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2025年01期
页码:
99-108
栏目:
地震与地质灾害
出版日期:
2025-03-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis of Rainfall Thresholds for Geologic Hazards in Mei?zhou City Based on E-I-D Model
文章编号:
1001-8662（2025）1-0099-10
作者:
李金湘
广东省地质环境监测总站，广州 510800
Author(s):
LI Jinxiang
Guangdong Provincial Geological Environment Monitoring Station ， Guangzhou 510800， China
关键词:
最小二乘回归; E-I-D模型; 梅州市; 地质灾害预警
Keywords:
Least squares regression; E-I-D model; Meizhou City; Early warning of geological hazard
分类号:
P694
DOI:
10.13512/j.hndz.2025.1.12
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
研究了梅州市汛期降雨诱发滑坡的特征及其预警阈值模型，分析了短时强降雨和长期中雨渗透在滑坡事件中的主要作用。通过对比I-D（降雨强度—历时）、E-D（累积降雨量—历时）和E-I（累积降雨量—降雨强度）模型，发现单一模型难以全面预测滑坡风险。为此，构建了E-I-D模型，综合考虑降雨强度、持续时间和有效降雨量等因素，提高了滑坡预测的准确性和全面性。该模型适应梅州市的季风性气候特征，为区域滑坡预警系统的优化和地质灾害防治提供了理论支持。
Abstract:
This paper investigated the characteristics of rainfall-induced landslides during the flood season in Mei?zhou City and its warning threshold model，and analyzed the main roles of short-term intense rainfall and long-term moderate rainfall infiltration in landslide events. By comparing the I-D，E-D，and E-I models，it was found that it was difficult for a single model to comprehensively predict landslide risk. For this reason，this paper constructed the E-I-D model，which took rainfall intensity，duration，and effective rainfall into account to improve the accu?racy and comprehensiveness of landslide prediction. The model was adapted to the monsoon climate characteristics of Meizhou City and provided theoretical support for the optimization of the early warning system for regional land?slides and the prevention and control of geological hazards.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2024-11-15
基金项目：广东省自然资源厅科技项目（GDZRZYKJ2024008）
作者简介：李金湘（1980-），男，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事地质灾害防治及研究工作。E-mail：2319058045@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-03-30