显著地震地方平太阴时在台湾强震中应用研究-华南地震

文章信息/Info

Title:: Application Study on Local Mean Lunar Times of Remarkable Earthquake in Taiwan Strong Earthquakes

Author(s):: GONG Wei; FANG Chuanji; LIANG Kai; CHEN Chuanchang; Nanping Seismic Station, Fujian Earthquake Agency，Nanping 353000，China

Keywords:: Local mean lunar times; Remarkable earthquake; Earthquake prediction; Taiwan area

摘要:: 根据显著地震地方平太阴时分布预报地震的思路，对台湾地区1971年以来14组MS 7级以上地震前显著地震特征进行了回顾性研究。研究结果显示，台湾地区14组MS 7级以上地震中，9组地震前存在两个以上显著地震，约占总地震数64%。9组存在两个显著地震中，只有1组地震前显著地震地方平太阴时夹角Δτ≥45°，其余8组地震前显著地震地方平太阴时夹角Δτ≤45°，且主震都发生在其满足条件的显著地震后29天内。结果表明，地方平太阴时夹角Δτ≤45°可应用于台湾强震前的短临预测。

Abstract:: According on the idea of predicting earthquakes by local mean lunar times of remarkable earthquake， the characteristics of 14 groups earthquakes with MS≥ 7.0 in Taiwan area since 1971 was studied retrospectively. The results showed that among 14 groups earthquakes with MS≥ 7，5 groups did not have more than two remarkable earthquakes before the strong earthquake, and 9 groups had more than two remarkable earthquakes before the strong earthquake，about 64% of the total earthquakes. Among the 9 groups, the local mean lunar times angle of remarkable earthquake before the earthquake was greater than 45° in only 1 group， and the local mean lunar times angle were less than 45° in other 8 groups. Meanwhile, the main earthquakes occurred within 29 days after the remarkable earthquakes. The results show that the angle of local mean lunar times less than 45°can be applied to the short-impending prediction before strong earthquake in Taiwan area.