[1]王小娜,邵 叶,陈大庆,等.东南沿海地震带4级以上地震成组活动特征研究[J].华南地震,2025,(02):1-6.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2025.02.01]
　WANG Xiaona,SHAO Ye,CHEN Daqing,et al.Study on the Grouped Occurrence Characteristics of Earthquakes with M≥4 in the Southeast Coastal Seismic Zone[J].,2025,(02):1-6.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2025.02.01]
点击复制

东南沿海地震带4级以上地震成组活动特征研究()

华南地震[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2025年02期
页码:
1-6
栏目:
清远4.3 级地震专栏特稿
出版日期:
2025-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on the Grouped Occurrence Characteristics of Earthquakes with M≥4 in the Southeast Coastal Seismic Zone
文章编号:
1001-8662（2025）02-0001-06
作者:
王小娜1; 2; 3; 邵 叶1; 陈大庆1; 许斌斌1; 仲 秋1
1.广东省地震局，广州 510070;2.中国地震局地震监测与减灾技术重点实验室，广州 510070;3.广东省地震预警与重大工程安全诊断重点实验室，广州 510070
Author(s):
WANG Xiaona1; 2; 3; SHAO Ye1; CHEN Daqing1; XU Binbin1; ZHONG Qiu1
1.Guangdong Earthquake Agency， Guangzhou 510070， China;2.Key Laboratory of Earthquake Monitoring and Disaster Mitigation Technology ， CEA， Guangzhou 510070， China;3.Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Earthquake Early Warning and Safety Diagnosis of Major Projects ， Guangzhou 510070， China
关键词:
东南沿海地震带; 成组活动; 清远4.3级地震; 预测指标
Keywords:
Southeast coastal seismic zone;  Earthquake clusters;  Qingyuan M4.3 earthquake;  Prediction indicators
分类号:
P315.5
DOI:
10.13512/j.hndz.2025.02.01
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
根据东南沿海地震带去余后的4级以上地震目录，进行地震活动时间规律分析，发现1974年以来东南沿海地震带4级以上地震（去余）有成组活动的规律。给出了成组活动起止判定标准：上一组成组活动结束后，若发生1次4级以上地震，且震后275天内再次发震，则认为成组活动开始，第1次地震（首发地震）发震时间为成组活动开始时间。若震后417天（组内地震最长时间间隔）内未发生地震，则认为成组活动结束，组内最后一次地震发震时间为成组活动结束时间。同时总结出3条预测指标，指标1为首发地震后4.1年内东南沿海地震带有发生多次4级以上，甚至5级以上地震的可能。指标2为首发地震后25~275天内东南沿海地震带有再次发生4级以上地震的可能。指标3为首发地震后53~320天内东南沿海地震带有发生5级以上地震的可能。结合成组活动起止判定标准和3条预测指标，最终给出东南沿海地震带4级以上地震研判方案和清远4.3级地震对后续地震趋势研判的指示意义。
Abstract:
The study analyzes the temporal patterns of M≥4 earthquakes（removing aftershocks）in the southeast coastal seismic zone since 1974. The results reveal that these earthquakes exhibit a pattern of grouped occurrence. Firstly，the paper establishes the criteria for identifying the onset and termination of such grouped episodes：If an M≥4 earthquake occurs within 0.75 years after the end of the previous group of seismic activities，the new group of seismic activities is considered to have started，and the occurrence time of the first earthquake（initial earthquake）is taken as the start time of the group of seismic activities. If no earthquake occurs within 417 days（the maximum time interval between earthquakes within the group） after an earthquake， the group of seismic activities is considered to have ended，and the occurrence time of the last earthquake within the group is taken as the end time of the group of seismic activities. At the same time，this paper summarizes three prediction indicators. Indicator 1∶Within 4.1 years following the first earthquake， multiple M≥4 earthquakes， potentially including M≥5 events， may occur in this seismic zone. Indicator 2：Between 25 and 275 days after the first earthquake，there is potential for another M≥4 earthquake in the zone. Indicator 3：An M≥5 earthquake may occur within 53 to 320 days after the first earthquake. Finally， by integrating the criteria for determining the onset and termination of such grouped activity with these three prediction indicators， this paper proposes an evaluation and prediction plan for M≥4 earthquakes in the Southeastern Coastal Seismic Belt，along with implications of the Qingyuan M4.3 earthquake for evaluating subsequent seismic activity patterns.

参考文献/References:

[1]国家地震局科技监测司.地震学分析预报方法程式指南[M].北京：地震出版社，1990.
[2]袁丽文.华南地区地震危险性判定综合指标的分析与应用[J].华南地震，2022，42（04）：78-85.
[3]郭昱琴，张丽峰，郑柯献，等.华南地区地震热异常变化特征分析[J].华南地震，2024，44（02）：14-23.
[4]阎春恒，李莎，周斌，等.华南沿海地震带5级及以上地震时空演化特征[J].地震地磁观测与研究，2022，43（S1）：396-399.
[5]阎春恒，周斌.华南沿海地震带5级以上地震中期向短期过渡的跟踪预测策略[J].华南地震，2022，42（04）：26-33.
[6]中国地震局监测预报司.测震分析预测技术方法工作手册[M].北京：地震出版社，2020.

相似文献/References:

[1]万永芳,陈大庆.粤闽交界及其近海地区地震活动分析[J].华南地震,2014,(04):20.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2014.04.04]
　[J].,2014,(02):20.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2014.04.04]
[2]陈大庆,邵叶,谭争光,等.东南沿海地震带M≥5级中强地震活动的时空丛集特征[J].华南地震,2020,40(04):10.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2020.04.02]
　CHEN Daqing,SHAO Ye,TAN Zhengguang,et al.Spatial-temporal Clustering Characteristics of M≥5 Moderate and Strong Seismic Activities in the Southeast Coastal Seismic Belt[J].,2020,40(02):10.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2020.04.02]
[3]谢小玲,张 慧,王惠琳,等.东南沿海地震带东西段深部构造内在联系初步研究[J].华南地震,2024,(增刊):6.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2024.S1.03]
　XIE Xiaoling,ZHANG Hui,WANG Huilin,et al.Preliminary Study on the Internal Relation of Deep Structures Between the Eastern and Western Sections of the Southeast Coastal Seismic Belt[J].,2024,(02):6.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2024.S1.03]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2025-06-28
基金项目：中国地震局2025年度震情跟踪任务（CEA-ZQGZ-202502011）；广东省科技计划项目（2023A1111120028， 2024A1111120016）联合资助。
作者简介：王小娜（1987-），女，博士，高级工程师，现主要从事数字地震学方面的研究。E-mail：wangxiaona16@163.com
通信作者：邵叶（1987-），女，硕士，高级工程师，现主要从事地震预测方面的研究。E-mail：316043795@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-06-30