[1]邵 磊,盛 强.地震灾害风险普查中基于插值的危险性分析[J].华南地震,2024,(04):96-105.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2024.04.11]
 SHAO Lei,SHENG Qiang.Risk Analysis in Earthquake Disaster Risk Survey Based on Interpolation[J].,2024,(04):96-105.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2024.04.11]
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地震灾害风险普查中基于插值的危险性分析()
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华南地震[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2024年04期
页码:
96-105
栏目:
地震与地质灾害
出版日期:
2024-12-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk Analysis in Earthquake Disaster Risk Survey Based on Interpolation
文章编号:
1001-8662(2024)04-0096-10
作者:
邵 磊1盛 强2
1.湖南省地震局,长沙 410004;2.广东省地震局,广州 510070
Author(s):
SHAO Lei1SHENG Qiang2
1.Hunan Earthquake Agency , Changsha,410004, China;2.Guangdong Earthquake Agency , Guangzhou,510070, China
关键词:
地震灾害风险普查地震危险性分析插值方法误差分析比例系数
Keywords:
Earthquake disaster risk surveySeismic risk analysisInterpolation methodError analysisScale coefficient
分类号:
P315.9
DOI:
10.13512/j.hndz.2024.04.11
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
使用ArcGIS的克里金、反距离权重、样条函数和自然邻域四种插值方法,对常德地区30″到6″网格地震动峰值加速度和0.2s、1.0s、2.0s及6.0s的反应谱进行插值,结果表明各插值方法的误差范围很小且高度集中,其中克里金法和样条函数法在误差控制方面更优;通过对不同大小网格的克里金法插值误差进行对比,结果显示选择何种尺度的网格进行插值需要进行论证。文中对比了克里金法和样条函数法的插值效率,当样本点较大时克里金法在半变异函数的估计上耗时较长,而确定性的样条函数法则计算很快,综合分析采用样条函数法插值得到湖南省6″网格的基岩地震危险性结果,并按照规范要求调整得到场地峰值加速度。文中进一步讨论了湖南省不同超越概率水平下场地峰值加速度比例系数,并与区划图结果进行对比,结果表明,除极少数地区外全省多遇地震动峰值加速度均小于基本地震动的1/3,罕遇地震动与基本地震动的峰值加速度之比与区划图结果基本一致,而极罕遇地震在一定范围可能被低估。地震危险性分级结果表明,湖南省总体上危险性等级不高,最高的为中高等级(2级)。
Abstract:
By using kriging, inverse distance weighting, spline function, and natural neighbor interpolation methods based on ArcGIS,the peak ground acceleration and the response spectra at periods of 0.2 s,1.0 s,2.0 s, and 6.0 s were interpolated for 30″ to 6″ grid cells in Changde area. The results show that the error ranges of all interpolation methods are small and highly concentrated. Kriging and spline function methods are superior in terms of error control. By comparing the Kriging interpolation errors of different grid sizes,it is shown that the selection of grid scale for interpolation needs to be demonstrated. This paper compares the interpolation efficiency of Kriging and spline function methods. When the sample size is large, Kriging takes a long time to estimate the semi-variance function, while the deterministic spline function method calculates quickly. Comprehensive analysis was conducted by using spline function interpolation to obtain the seismic risk analysis results of bedrock of the 6″ grid in Hunan Province, and the peak ground acceleration was adjusted to different sites according to the code requirements. The scale coefficient of peak ground acceleration of different sites under different probability of exceedance levels in Hunan Province was further discussed, and compared with the results of the zonation map. The results show that except for a few regions,the peak ground acceleration of frequent ground motion is less than one-third of the basis ground motion,and the ratio of rare ground motion to that of basis ground motion is basically consistent with the results of the zonation map. However, very rare ground motion may be underestimated in a certain range. The results of seismic risk classification show that the overall risk level in Hunan Province is not high,and the highest grade is medium-to-high(level 2).

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2024-04-30
基金项目:湖南省地震局防震减灾攻关科研课题:长沙地区房屋地震易损性研究(202401)
资助作者简介:邵磊(1984-),男,工程师,主要从事地震危险性分析、场地地震影响评价等工作。E-mail:79541207@qq.com
通信作者:盛强(1984-),男,高级工程师,主要从事地震构造、工程地质、地震危险性分析等研究。E-mail:269267018@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-12-30