[1]张玉凤,延军平,李双双,等.川滇菱块MS≥6.0地震时空对称特征及趋势判断[J].华南地震,2020,40(01):11-20.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2020.01.002]
　ZHANG Yufeng,YAN Junping,LI Shuangshuang,et al.Space-time Symmetry Characteristics and Tendency Judgement of Earthquakes with MS≥6.0 in the Sichuan-Yunnan Rhombic Block[J].South China journal of seismology,2020,40(01):11-20.[doi:10.13512/j.hndz.2020.01.002]
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川滇菱块MS≥6.0地震时空对称特征及趋势判断()
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华南地震[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
40
期数:
2020年01期
页码:
11-20
栏目:
地震科学研究
出版日期:
2020-03-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Space-time Symmetry Characteristics and Tendency Judgement of Earthquakes with MS≥6.0 in the Sichuan-Yunnan Rhombic Block
文章编号:
1001-8662（2020）01-0011-10
作者:
张玉凤; 延军平; 李双双; 万 佳; 武亚群
陕西师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院，西安 710119
Author(s):
ZHANG Yufeng; YAN Junping; LI Shuangshuang; WAN Jia; WU Yaqun
School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University，Xi’an 710119，China
关键词:
川滇菱块; 可公度法; 三性法; 时空对称; 趋势判断
Keywords:
Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block; Commensurable method; Triplet method; Space-time symmetry; Tendency judgement
分类号:
P315.73
DOI:
10.13512/j.hndz.2020.01.002
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
川滇菱块是中国西南地震频发区，分析区域地震时空对称结构，进而对未来地震趋势进行判断具有重要的现实意义。选取1950年以来菱形块体MS≥6.0地震数据，运用重大自然灾害时空对称方法，对区域地震时间周期性和空间对称性进行研究，并从太阳黑子、地球自转等发震物理基础精细探讨。结果表明：① 在地震趋势判断上，2020年川滇菱块MS≥6.0地震可公度信号最强，随机性概率为66.7%，有可能发生较大震级地震；②在时空对称性规律上，川滇菱块MS≥6.0地震具有时间周期性和空间对称性，按震中两两分布的对称性和震中三角形旋转规律，未来一次发生在金沙江断裂带或丽江—小金河断裂带可能性较大；③在相关物理基础上，川滇菱块MS≥6.0地震多发生在太阳黑子峰值或谷值期，上升或下降段发生频率相对较少；同时，川滇菱块MS≥6.0地震多发生在地球自转加速期。可以判断未来3～5年，太阳活动仍处于活跃期，地球自转也处于加速期，两者与川滇菱块MS≥6.0地震发生的对应关系，可在一定程度佐证重大自然灾害时空对称方法判断2020年、2019年地震发生的可靠性。
Abstract:
The Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block, located in the southwestern of China，is not only a tectonic unit with the strong earthquake activity，but also shows obvious spatial structure of seismic migration. Meanwhile，the symmetry and tendency methods are proposed to identify the spatial-temporal symmetry characteristics of natural disasters and analyze the rationality and physical basis of the seismic symmetrical structure. Thus，based on the seismic data（MS≥6.0）of Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block since 1950，the spatiotemporal symmetry and tendency of the earthquake are analyzed by the theories and methods of spatiotemporal symmetry in nature disaster（i.e. commensurability information extraction，map of butterfly structure and seismic migration）. More specially，the possibility of earthquake occurrence are discussed from both sunspot and earth rotation to reveal its occurrence regularity at some certain extent. The results show that：the earthquake（MS≥6.0）in the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block would possible occur in 2020，and the probability of randomness is 66.7%；as for the spatial symmetry information，the earthquakes（MS≥6.0）in the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block show temporal periodicity and spatial symmetry，according to the symmetry of epicentral distribution and regularity of epicentral triangular rotation，the next earthquake region could be likely in Jinshajiang fault zone or Lijiang-Xiaojinhe fault zone；as for the physical basis of symmetrical structure，the paper finds that when the conversion stage between peak and valley of sunspots，as well as the acceleration of earth rotation, the earthquake frequency with MS≥6.0 increases in the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block，which would provide some supplementary proofs to explain the possibility of earthquakes in 2020 and 2019.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2019-03-28基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目：中国西部地震灾害时空对称结构精细化对接研究（41877519）作者简介：张玉凤（1996- ），女，硕士研究生，主要从事自然灾害与区域发展研究。E-mail：1462778910@qq.com.通信作者：延军平（1956- ），男，教授，博士生导师，主要从事全球变化与灾害研究。E-mail: yanjp@snnu.edu.cn.
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-04-18